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ВІДДІЛИ

International Polar Year 2007-2008 DATABASE

CATALOGUE OF THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FIELDS RANGED BY THEIR PROBABILITY
(West Antarctic Sector)

(As First Results of IPY project # 1151 'Analysis of the transformation of large-scale atmospheric circulation of the troposphere in the Southern hemisphere in consequence of the climate warming impact for development of the physical-statistical methods of weather at Antarctic Peninsula'), Supervisor Prof. V. Martazinova

CONTENTS

For both austral summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) figures are organized as follows:
  1. The most probable mean sea level pressure fields, decades 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2007.
  2. Monthly Fields, 1991-2000:
    • Most Probable Fields (First probability class)
    • Second probability class
    • Raremost class
  3. Winter, Individual years’ Monthly Most Probable Fields
Method (References):

Tymofeyev V., 2009 On the role of tropospheric circulation in the recent climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula Region. Bulletin of Geography – Physical Geography Series (Poland), N 1, 2009, p. 63-75.

Martazinova V., Tymofeyev V., 2007: Interdecadal changes of tropospehric circulation in Southern extratropics during the recent warming in the Antarctic Peninsula (U.S. Geological Survey and The National Academies; USGS OF-2007-1047. Extended Abstract.067)

Martazinova V.F., 2005: The classification of synoptic Patterns by Method of Analogs, J. Environ. Sci. Eng., 7, 61-65.

Data: ERA-40, ECMWF (1971-2002), NCEP-NCAR (2003- currently)

AUSTRAL SUMMER (DJF)

1. The most probable mean sea level pressure fields (hPa), January, decades 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2007.
1971-1980


1981-1990


1991-2000


2001-2007


Note: Here 'H' means Low Center, and 'B' – High Center! – still not adopted to English.

AUSTRAL SUMMER, MONTHLY FIELDS, 1991-2000
MOST PROBABLE FIELDS:

December


January


February


Skill probability: December 78%, January 88,7%, and February (93.6%).

AUSTRAL SUMMER, MONTHLY FIELDS IN 1991-2000
SECOND PROBABILITY CLASS

December


January


February


Skill probability: December - 9.7%, January 7,4% February 6,4%

AUSTRAL SUMMER, MONTHLY FIELDS IN 1991-2000
RAREMOST PROBABILITY CLASS
DECEMBER – 2 fields:





December, skill probability 7.9%, and 4,5%.

JANUARY – 2 fields:





January, skill probability 2.9%, and 1%, 1991-2000

FEBRUARY:

No raremost MSLP fields are distinguished for February.

AUSTRAL WINTER (JJA)

INDIVIDUAL DECADES, MOST PROBABLE FIELDS

The most probable mean sea level pressure fields, July, decades 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 гг. and 2001-2007.
1971-1980


1981-1990


1991-2000


2001-2007


Note: Here also ‘H’ means Low Center, and ‘B’ – High Center! – still not adopted to English.

WINTER, MONTHLY MOST PROBABLE FIELDS

Decade 1991-2000
June


July


August


Skill probability: June 62% , July 67%, August 72%.

WINTER MONTHS, Decade 1991-2000, SECOND PROBABILITY CLASS

June


July


August


Skill probability: June 31%, July 23%, August 19%.

WINTER, Decade 1991-2000, RAREMOST PROBABILITY CLASS
JUNE (3 MSLP fields):

(English abbreviations for Low and High Centers are used)
June-1


June-2


June-3


JULY - raremost (2 MSLP fields):

July-1


July-2


AUGUST – raremost (3 MSLP fields):

August-1


August-2


August-3


WINTER, INDIVIDUAL YEARS’ MONTHLY MOST PROBABLE FIELDS



Most probable mslp, July 1987 (coldest in the modern climate epoch).

LATEST DECADE 2001-2007:

JULY

July, 2006


July, 2005


July, 2004


July, 2003


July, 2002


July, 2001


AUGUST

August, 2006


August, 2005


August, 2004


August, 2003


July, 2002


JUNE

June, 2006


June, 2005


June, 2004


June, 2003


June, 2002




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